# Food Security Fridays — Week 10: SNAP Cuts Baseline
## Replication Package

### Title
"People Who Really Need SNAP Will Still Get It."

### Author
Matthew P. Rabbitt, PhD
Economist, USDA Economic Research Service

### Overview
This replication package produces all statistics cited in the SNAP Cuts Baseline
post and infographic for the Food Security Fridays series. The analysis
establishes a baseline portrait of who SNAP serves and the food insecurity
severity among SNAP households, using the December 2024 CPS Food Security
Supplement — potentially the last CPS-FSS fielding before the H.R. 1 SNAP cuts
take effect and before the survey was discontinued.

### Data Source
- **December 2024 Current Population Survey Food Security Supplement (CPS-FSS)**
- Source: U.S. Census Bureau
- Download: The raw ASCII file (`dec24pub.dat`) and data dictionary (`cpsdec24.pdf`)
  are available from the Census Bureau's CPS-FSS download page:
  https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/time-series/demo/cps/cps-supp_cps-repwgt/cps-food-security.html
- Universe: Civilian noninstitutionalized population
- Unit of analysis: Households (reference persons, PERRP 40/41)
- Sample: Supplement respondents only (`HRSUPINT == 1`); 32,719 households
- Weighted estimates use `HHSUPWGT` (household supplement weight, divided by 10,000)
- SNAP participation is self-reported via `HESP1` and may understate actual participation

### Files

| File | Description |
|------|-------------|
| `fsf_snapcuts_reproducibility.do` | Self-contained Stata analysis producing all 3 tables |
| `cpsdec2024.do` | CPS-FSS data cleaning program (creates cpsdec2024.dta from raw ASCII) |
| `fsf_snapcuts_README.md` | This file |

### Requirements
- **Stata 14 or later** (tested with Stata 16 MP)
- Raw CPS-FSS data: `dec24pub.dat` (ASCII file from Census Bureau)
- OR: Already-cleaned `cpsdec2024.dta` (produced by `cpsdec2024.do`)

### Instructions

1. **If starting from raw ASCII data:**
   - Update the paths in `cpsdec2024.do` and run it to produce `cpsdec2024.dta`

2. **Run the analysis:**
   - Open `fsf_snapcuts_reproducibility.do`
   - Update the `$rawdata` path to the directory containing `cpsdec2024.dta`
   - Update the `$projdir` path to your desired output directory
   - Run the file

3. **Output:**
   - Log file: `$projdir/output/fsf_snapcuts_analysis.log`
   - Contains all 3 tables with weighted estimates:
     - Table 1: Total SNAP/non-SNAP households, FI and VLFS rates by SNAP status, national FI rate
     - Table 2: Share of SNAP households with children, elderly, disabled adults, employed adults
     - Table 3: 4-category food security distribution (SNAP vs. non-SNAP), FI rates for H.R. 1 targeted populations

### Analysis Tables

| Table | Description |
|-------|-------------|
| 1 | SNAP participation and food security (total SNAP HHs, FI/VLFS rates by SNAP status, national FI rate) |
| 2 | Who SNAP serves (share with children, elderly, disabled adult, employed adult) |
| 3 | Food insecurity severity and targeted populations (4-category distribution, FI rates for adults 55-64 and teens-only parents) |

### Key Variables Constructed

| Variable | Source CPS Variable(s) | Definition |
|----------|----------------------|------------|
| `snap12` | `HESP1` (1=yes, 2=no, -1=NIU) | SNAP receipt past 12 months (self-reported) |
| `fi` | `HRFS12M1` (1=secure, 2=low FS, 3=VLFS) | Binary food insecurity indicator (low FS + VLFS) |
| `vlfs` | `HRFS12M1` | Very low food security (HRFS12M1 == 3) |
| `fs12dcat` | `HRFS12MD` (1=high, 2=marginal, 3=low, 4=VLFS) | 4-category food security status |
| `haschild` | `PRTAGE` | Household has any member age 0–17 |
| `haselder` | `PRTAGE` | Household has any member age 60+ |
| `hh_disabled` | `PEDISEAR`, `PEDISEYE`, `PEDISREM`, `PEDISPHY`, `PEDISDRS`, `PEDISOUT` | Household has adult (18+) with any disability |
| `hh_anyworker` | `PEMLR` (1=employed-at work, 2=employed-absent) | Household has any employed adult |
| `has5564_noch` | `PRTAGE` | Adults 55–64, no children — H.R. 1 target |
| `teensonly` | `PRTAGE` | Children 14–17 only, no younger — H.R. 1 target |

### Key Findings (December 2024 CPS-FSS)
- 12.6 million SNAP households (self-reported)
- 49.8% of SNAP households are food insecure (vs. 9.7% non-SNAP)
- 21.1% of SNAP households experience very low food security
- 42% of SNAP households have children; 42% include elderly; 45% have a disabled adult
- SNAP households with adults 55-64 (no children): 49.0% food insecure
- Parents with only teenagers on SNAP: 54.7% food insecure
- 49% of SNAP households have at least one employed adult

### External Citations
- Rabbitt, Reed-Jones, Hales, Suttles, & Burke (2025). *Household Food Security
  in the United States in 2024.* ERR-358, USDA-ERS.
- CBO cost estimate for Subtitle A (Nutrition) of H.R. 1 (P.L. 119-21) (~$187B over 10 years)
- CBPP (2025). "By the Numbers: Harmful Republican Megabill Takes Food Assistance
  Away From Millions of People."

### Notes
- All estimates are weighted using household supplement weights (`hhsupwgt / 10000`)
- Survey design uses `svyset [pw=hhsupwgt]`
- Sample restricted to supplement respondents (`hrsupint == 1`) and reference persons (`perrp` 40/41)
- SNAP participation is self-reported and is known to understate actual SNAP receipt
- The December 2024 CPS-FSS may be the final fielding of the supplement